Despite the controversy over Bitcoin, it has been successfully run so far under the exquisite arrangement of algorithms based on a series of mathematical functions. Its underlying technology block chain has attracted unprecedented attention of governments and capital all over the world. Not long ago, state leaders even organized Politburo collective meetings to learn block chains, raising a budding technology to the height of national strategy. The government not only wants to rely on the digital money issued by the central bank to reconstruct the international system, but also tries to solve the problems of social trust and information asymmetry through the integration of block chain technology and various industries.

The paper discusses the credit period and the demand of credit, and the real economy. There are three types of physical economic cycles, namely, the stock period of about four years (the base period), the capital expenditure period of about 9 years (Jugla period) and the real estate period of about 18 years (Kuznets period). The inventory period is reflected in the small changes in the demand of the terminal, which will conduct and amplify each link in the industrial chain, and finally cause the huge fluctuation of the upstream stock. The root cause is information asymmetry. The enterprises with the most understanding of the terminal requirements and the enterprises in the supporting industry chain have the asymmetry of the operation information and the delay of the purchase It can lead to an expected misjudgment on the demand of the terminal in the upstream of the industrial chain. After the amplification, the inventory, stock accumulation and the cycle change of the inventory will be generated. The period of capital expenditure is reflected in the whole process of commodity supply from shortage to surplus. The root cause remains the time lag between the information asymmetry and the investment to the output. John Muller's description of the cycle of capital spending in the

Why does bank credit fluctuate periodically? In the view of the supply end of credit, the central bank controls the total gate of money supply, and it is often adjusted according to the economic situation, but it can only influence the credit behavior of the commercial bank by adjusting the reserve ratio and the benchmark interest rate of the deposit, The excess reserve ratio and the real loan interest rate are still determined by the independent operation of the commercial bank. This is the above-mentioned commercial bank's expected factors for the economic cycle, which directly determines the attitude of its credit policy. In addition, there are two important factors, namely, the asymmetry of information between the bank and the enterprise and the time lag between the investment of the enterprise and the output.

In 2018, more than 90% of the world's assets are in negative returns, a record of a century and a rare depression that has made investors feel the power of the economic cycle. Why can the economy have a cycle and can't we avoid it? In spite of the fact that numerous economists have come to a successor in order to solve the problem of the cycle, they are still in a position to return. The economic cycle that can't be opened seems to have become a business sense. The Great Depression in 1929 has declared a market failure in the liberal economy, and the 2008 financial crisis means that Keynesianism in the government's intervention is not a perfect solution. The Economic and Periodic Crisis and the devaluation of the currency in the face of the monopoly of the Fed's currency In 2009, Nakamoto came up with his own solution, the decentralized "point-to-point electronic cash payment system," with block chain as the underlying technology.

In 2018, some companies have defrauded financial institutions with a large amount of money by forging contracts, providing false information, and default in the economic downturn as a result of poor management. If you chain the information on its assets, an enterprise with an intersection with it in the supply chain can see its information, and the fraud is immediately found. Furthermore, the non-tampering and traceability of the information improves the fraud cost of the enterprise, thus reducing the information asymmetry in the financing. In addition, the traditional information mechanism has a serious lag in time, and the commercial bank is in a vulnerable position in the application of tracking and risk management in the loan of the enterprise and the post-loan capital It is too late for the bank to find the risk after the enterprise's default. The information mechanism provided by the block chain can be used for real-time, dynamic updating and storage. The bank can master the situation of the borrower in real time based on the information system of block chain, track the direction of the loan fund, and check whether the application is consistent with the application.

"History repeats and science and technology move forward forever." When I saw this on the cover of Dr. Wu Jun's General History of Global Science and Technology, I began to wonder if there was a technology that could fight the cycle. Over and over again, let us see the bankruptcy of the "rational man" hypothesis, and the irrationality of the market is an important reason for the cycle of prosperity and depression. To a large extent, the reason why irrationality exists is due to the asymmetry of information-the behavior difference caused by the asymmetry of information, and the magnification of the difference because of the asymmetry of information, which becomes the source of fluctuation.

Looking to the future, the block chain, as the underlying technology of the bud development, will test the imagination of the human again as with the Internet technology of several decades ago. In the internet age, the commercial value of the network effect is created by the user on the platform, but the value is obtained by the platform, which is actually a value distribution injustice under the central mechanism. However, in the wave of digital economy, the future of personal data, such as the privacy of block chain technology, may become an asset, and the ownership is owned by the individual. The payment of personal data will return the user's data value to the user, and the value distribution in the central mechanism can be solved. the gap between the rich and The solution is even within the range of the block chain.

A complete economic cycle includes boom, recession, depression and recovery, and the credit cycle is the most important of the factors that affect the cycle of these four stages. "the cycle is just a series of repeated events driven by the same logical laws, although each time it does not necessarily appear exactly the same way, but the laws are similar," said Dalio of the Bridge Water Fund. According to his macro-cycle model, productivity gains brought about by knowledge accumulation and technological progress are slow in the long run, so short-term economic growth depends more on credit growth, credit easing and austerity in the short and long term cyclical changes Become the fluctuation of the economic cycle, the essence of the economic cycle is the credit cycle.

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The regional block chain is centralized, non-tamper, transparent and traceable. It is perfectly matched with information asymmetry, and the economic cycle is expected to be ironed in the future by changing the credit cycle. The data of the traditional central bank credit system is basically provided by the commercial bank, and the commercial bank is in the information disadvantage whether the due diligence or the post-loan management link before the loan, and the natural information asymmetry between the commercial bank and the enterprise can lead to the adverse selection and the moral hazard. In the future, the information system established by the block chain can chain the core asset information of the enterprise or the individual, record the complete history of the data and provide the data traceability function. block-chain The assets, funds and other transactions of the enterprise or the individual can be accurately recorded on the block, so that the authenticity and the real-time property of the data are ensured, and the problem that the client of the pre-loan investigation stage is provided with false information is solved. The commercial bank stores and shares the credit information of the customer in the organization in an encrypted form, and when the customer applies for the loan, the commercial bank can conduct the verification directly by the corresponding information on the node in the block chain after obtaining the authorization.

The economic foundation decides the superstructure, and after the future economic cycle is eliminated, how will our social culture and living habits change? Science and technology change life, block chain is worth looking forward.

From the point of view of the technical characteristics of blockchain, it is most likely to cause subversive changes to human trading behavior over the past thousands of years, but it requires patience. The cover article published by the Economist in 2015, "trusted Machine-Block chain commitment," mentioned that blockchain allows people to build trust between people without endorsement by an authority, which will reduce transaction costs between strangers. And transform the trading behavior of various industries, improve the efficiency of the operation of the whole society. In the future, block chain technology will bring us production and operation, and the change in credit activity is amazing, but this may not be the best time for business applications. . From a historical point of view, human development has been the alternating progress of``offensive'' technology and``defensive'' technology. If the transformation of internet and artificial intelligence is regarded as``offensive'' technology, the decentralization, encryption and security of blockchain technology can be regarded as the representative of``defensive'' technology. Generally speaking, the``offensive'' technology is centralized, and the centralized business model means that the leading enterprises will be produced in theory and the commercial value can be captured by means of network effect or monopoly, so it is generally developed rapidly under the promotion of capital and entrepreneurs, which does not need the promotion of the government;Most of this``defensive'' technology in blockchain. It is to the center, the natural and commercial value creation law is contrary, in the creation of commercial interest is inferior, so the early stage is generally under the promotion of the government, after the government set up the infrastructure of the related technology, the capital and the entrepreneur will begin to intervene, Find your business model to create business value. Therefore, the development of the block chain will depend more on the role of the government, the central bank and the large commercial bank, and it is still in the construction period of the prior infrastructure and the industry standard, and the commercial application is in the technical standard. A series of related infrastructure, such as regulatory policy, will come to a stage of prosperity and development.

Blockchain changes human production relations. According to Marx's theory, productivity determines the production relationship, which should adapt to the development of productivity. As a result, productivity changes are ahead, and production relations change in the back. Does that mean that the golden period of blockchain development will only come after the transformation of human productivity? If you have to follow this logic to deduce the path of future social progress, it may be like this:artificial intelligence technology brings about the revolutionary improvement of human productivity→Blockchain changes social production relationship to adapt to the development of artificial intelligence leading productivity→Storage and computing provided by cloud computing. It provides technical support for the implementation of block chain. Big data provides algorithm analysis for massive data on block chain.

Many economic phenomena and studies have shown that commercial banks have obvious pro-periodicity in credit activities, which comes from the information asymmetry between the two sides of the loan. When the economy is on the rise, the situation is very good, commercial banks are too optimistic about the return on investment and solvency of enterprises, so banks compete to reduce credit standards and overextend loans under competition and performance incentives to promote the credit bubble. In this case, even projects with negative net present value can obtain credit financing. After receiving a large amount of credit, based on the expectation of high growth and development in the future, enterprises carry out a large number of investment activities such as plant, equipment and so on, and invest in it. There will be a terrible time lag in output, so once the future output is put on the market, market demand is lower than expected, industry sentiment decline or competition intensifies and other unfavorable factors appear, the return on investment of enterprises decreases or even loses money, and after the maturity of credit, there may be debt default and form non-performing loans. When the economy changes from prosperity to weakness, corporate debt defaults continue to occur, borrowers' balance sheets deteriorate, commercial banks change from optimism to caution when providing loans, and credit strategies change from radical to conservative. At the same time, banks began to tighten their trust based on declining performance expectations, risk concerns and tighter financial regulation. The size of the loan and the rapid fall in loan growth may result in low-risk, profitable projects that are difficult to access, leading to a tightening of the economy as a whole, and a recession or even a depression. Many of the regulatory practices have also proved that many of the bank's credit decision-making mistakes have occurred in the economic boom, not the period of recession. In the period of prosperity, the banks tend to be too optimistic and the credit policy is relaxed, so that many net present value-negative projects can also be financed, thus contributing to the bubble of the period of prosperity and the default and non-performing loans at the end of the period; during the recession, the bad assets of the banks tend to increase, the credit policy tends to be conservative, So that many net present value-positive items are rejected, and the trough of the decline period is increased. Therefore, the economic cycle of prosperity and recession has affected the attitude of the credit policy of the commercial bank, and the attitude of the credit policy of the commercial bank has increased the economic cycle of the boom and the recession through the entity enterprises, in other words, it is the bank's credit and the fluctuation of the economic cycle.

Based on the information mechanism of block chain technology, it is possible to timely release the default information of the enterprise to all banks and enterprises accessing the block chain, which not only increases the default cost of the whole society, but also effectively solves the problem of the risk of post-loan and post-loan in the bank that has been troubled by the bank for a long time. The central bank has been pushing the policy of targeting small-and micro-enterprises and other policies to track the direction of the funds through the block chain, see if the commercial bank really loans to the small micro-enterprise, and the directional monetary easing will no longer be a utopian idealism. The central bank can realize its policy intention with the aid of block chain technology, and eliminate the information asymmetry between the bank and the commercial bank. resolve a letter If the information in the loan is not symmetrical, the commercial bank will not be optimistic and over-lending in the economic boom period, and will not be too pessimistic in the period of economic decline, blindly reject the loan, keep the rationality and consistency of the loan standard all the time, and give the enterprise a stable expectation, It will greatly reduce the pro-cyclical nature of the commercial bank's credit activities. Because of the position advantage of the capital of the commercial bank, the lead-oriented block chain information system can also solve the incentive problem of the chain of the entity enterprise's assets. The commercial bank can make the chain of the entity's assets as the necessary condition for obtaining the credit financing. After the entity enterprise access system, the sharing of the asset information can allow the enterprise to Industry inventory, production capacity and other important business information is expected, blind investment in production expansion will be constrained by game theory. In other words, solving the problem of information asymmetry in enterprise management will smooth the inventory cycle and capital expenditure cycle, and reduce the short-and medium-term fluctuations in the real economy.

Since the birth of the block chain, it is known to be able to solve the problem of trust, to eliminate the friction of information, and to be regarded as the representative of the next generation technology. So, can the in-depth development of block chain be ironed to the economic cycle, so that people are really far from the trouble of the economic depression? We may have to open a hole, after all, human progress, by imagination.

Blockchain technology affects the credit cycle by solving the problem of information asymmetry, smoothing the inventory cycle and capital expenditure cycle, and finally ironing the whole macroeconomic cycle. Of course, the broad sense of ironing is not to immediately pull the past economic cycle into a straight line without fluctuations. Through the updating of technology, the progress of the algorithm continues to reduce the range of periodic fluctuations, which has been a great success. A small step in technology, a big step in human beings.